Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.27 – 82.52

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±11.7

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 77.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 18.29Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 25.48Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.7 ±10.4

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 21.59Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 31.31Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 29.62Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6366, 10599, 11368

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6366, 10599, 11368

Auto

27.8 26%

Teleop

54.2 51%

Endgame

24.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11254, 1102, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11254, 1102, 10367

Auto

18.9 24%

Teleop

37.7 48%

Endgame

22.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.3pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.8
Score range: 64–140
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 107.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273Season APEX181.7

27.8Auto18.9

54.2Teleop37.7

24.5Endgame22.2

58Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	24
teleop	113	61
endgame	33	47
foul	5	5
total	200	137

Result

Final score

200 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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