Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.69 – 119.25

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.1 ±11.2

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 27.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 13.29Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 99.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230 ±9.8

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 11.44Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 29.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 78.05Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8137, 6961, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8137, 6961, 8575

Auto

28.8 21%

Teleop

83.2 59%

Endgame

28.3 20%

Strengths

· 8575 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10591, 7085, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10591, 7085, 1287

Auto

34.6 32%

Teleop

54.3 49%

Endgame

20.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.7pts

Blue projected score119.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.4
Score range: 100–160
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 107.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.1Season APEX230

28.8Auto34.6

83.2Teleop54.3

28.3Endgame20.9

89Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	39
teleop	34	69
endgame	25	15
foul	5	0
total	90	123

Result

Final score

90 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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