Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.3 – 64.64

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.6 ±12.8

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 13.7Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 59.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 16.07Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 138.3 ±11

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 22.22Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 18.7Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 23.72Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11475, 342, 10599

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11475, 342, 10599

Auto

26.4 30%

Teleop

43.7 50%

Endgame

17.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3489, 11254, 11368

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3489, 11254, 11368

Auto

22.3 38%

Teleop

16.4 28%

Endgame

20.6 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.3pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.7
Score range: 46–108
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 107.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.6Season APEX138.3

26.4Auto22.3

43.7Teleop16.4

17.9Endgame20.6

46Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	54	39
endgame	35	27
foul	0	0
total	111	92

Result

Final score

111 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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