Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.17 – 131.65

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.3 ±10.4

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 19.09Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 52.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 25.34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.5 ±9.8

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 22.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 53.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 56.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11254, 1758, 10231

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11254, 1758, 10231

Auto

20.8 22%

Teleop

45.6 48%

Endgame

29.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 1319, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 1319, 343

Auto

30.3 25%

Teleop

59.4 49%

Endgame

31.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.2pts

Blue projected score131.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.5
Score range: 78–151
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.3Season APEX228.5

20.8Auto30.3

45.6Teleop59.4

29.4Endgame31.9

126Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	26
teleop	30	96
endgame	40	26
foul	0	10
total	94	158

Result

Final score

94 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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