Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.76 – 160.36

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179 ±11

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 38.96Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 53.11Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 26.69Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.1 ±9.8

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 36.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 98.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 25.34Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 1051, 10231

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4533, 1051, 10231

Auto

20.2 17%

Teleop

63.0 54%

Endgame

33.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10367, 8575, 6167

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 8575, 6167

Auto

26.6 18%

Teleop

86.7 57%

Endgame

38.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.8pts

Blue projected score160.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 98–181
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179Season APEX268.1

20.2Auto26.6

63Teleop86.7

33.5Endgame38.4

110Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	75	87
endgame	9	57
foul	0	0
total	98	157

Result

Final score

98 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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