Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.53 – 118.68

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±9.8

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 13.37Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 25.09Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 71.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±10.4

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 56.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 27.07Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 35.24Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11254, 8137, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11254, 8137, 6366

Auto

29.5 26%

Teleop

61.9 55%

Endgame

20.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1319, 10367, 4533

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1319, 10367, 4533

Auto

24.5 22%

Teleop

63.9 58%

Endgame

21.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.5pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.2
Score range: 91–138
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.2Season APEX190.6

29.5Auto24.5

61.9Teleop63.9

20.6Endgame21

105Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	26
teleop	86	47
endgame	21	42
foul	15	0
total	173	115

Result

Final score

173 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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