Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.31 – 123.49

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145 ±11.7

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 16.92Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 51.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 18.3Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±9.8

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 15.54Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 26.47Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 81.48Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6961, 1758, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6961, 1758, 10591

Auto

24.0 32%

Teleop

22.9 30%

Endgame

28.2 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6167, 11424, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6167, 11424, 1287

Auto

34.6 28%

Teleop

58.8 48%

Endgame

29.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.3pts

Blue projected score123.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.2
Score range: 67–142
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145Season APEX255

24Auto34.6

22.9Teleop58.8

28.2Endgame29

100Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	35
teleop	51	63
endgame	22	14
foul	5	0
total	92	112

Result

Final score

92 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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