Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.32 – 199.06

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.3 ±11

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 31.71Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 53.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 30.16Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±9.8

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 107.9Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 59.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 31.4Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 281, 1051, 1102

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 281, 1051, 1102

Auto

12.3 11%

Teleop

55.8 52%

Endgame

39.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 1319, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8575, 1319, 11424

Auto

24.3 13%

Teleop

116.2 62%

Endgame

47.5 25%

Strengths

· 8575 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.3pts

Blue projected score199.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.7
Score range: 96–218
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.3Season APEX268.7

12.3Auto24.3

55.8Teleop116.2

39.7Endgame47.5

59Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	36
teleop	65	78
endgame	42	43
foul	20	5
total	161	162

Result

Final score

161 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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