Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
83.34 – 69.91
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
75 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 111.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 40.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 27.48Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 15.25Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 27.03Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 35.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 7.5Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 281, 2815, 11475
56
/ 100 compatProjected
83.3 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 281, 2815, 11475
Auto
25.0 31%
Teleop
33.6 41%
Endgame
22.8 28%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3489, 7085, 6961
49
/ 100 compatProjected
69.9 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 3489, 7085, 6961
Auto
22.1 32%
Teleop
26.4 38%
Endgame
20.3 30%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score83.3pts
Blue projected score69.9pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 26%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 13.4
- Score range
- 49–104
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
111.2Season APEX126.2
25Auto22.1
33.6Teleop26.4
22.8Endgame20.3
114Consistency114
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 16 |
| teleop | 30 | 26 |
| endgame | 16 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 75 | 60 |
Result
Final score
75 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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