Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.08 – 60.05

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.7 ±10.4

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 26.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 29.93Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 17.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.5 ±10.5

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX -1.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 53.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 7.98Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11398, 4533, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11398, 4533, 7085

Auto

27.4 37%

Teleop

19.6 27%

Endgame

26.1 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 343, 11368

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3490, 343, 11368

Auto

16.7 35%

Teleop

15.3 32%

Endgame

15.5 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.1pts

Blue projected score60.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13
Score range: 41–92
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.7Season APEX238.5

27.4Auto16.7

19.6Teleop15.3

26.1Endgame15.5

119Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	23
teleop	44	68
endgame	17	55
foul	0	0
total	91	146

Result

Final score

91 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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