Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.05 – 139.74

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.1 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 29.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 22.52Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 36.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.2 ±9.8

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 84.73Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 26.36Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 28.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2815, 3489, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 3489, 11308

Auto

23.6 26%

Teleop

43.1 48%

Endgame

22.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1287, 10231, 8137

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1287, 10231, 8137

Auto

32.2 23%

Teleop

80.7 57%

Endgame

29.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.1pts

Blue projected score139.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.7
Score range: 69–159
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.1Season APEX255.2

23.6Auto32.2

43.1Teleop80.7

22.5Endgame29.8

104Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	28
teleop	32	82
endgame	23	24
foul	0	0
total	76	134

Result

Final score

76 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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