Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.37 – 69.98

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.9 ±10.4

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 22.24Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 20.01Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 32.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.9 ±10.4

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 18.51Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 28.33Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 23.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10231, 11398, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10231, 11398, 11424

Auto

14.4 19%

Teleop

33.8 45%

Endgame

26.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3489, 1102, 8137

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3489, 1102, 8137

Auto

11.6 17%

Teleop

30.7 45%

Endgame

26.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 51–93
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 105.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.9Season APEX157.9

14.4Auto11.6

33.8Teleop30.7

26.1Endgame26.6

169Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	48	52
endgame	46	22
foul	0	0
total	114	99

Result

Final score

114 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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