Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.25 – 158.75

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.7 ±10.4

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 17.46Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 16.45Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 11.34Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±10.5

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 78.53Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 54.04Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 26.18Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 281, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4533, 281, 11254

Auto

17.7 29%

Teleop

35.0 57%

Endgame

9.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1287, 1051, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1287, 1051, 11308

Auto

39.8 26%

Teleop

85.0 55%

Endgame

30.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.3pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.5
Score range: 27–177
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.7Season APEX264.5

17.7Auto39.8

35Teleop85

9.2Endgame30.5

135Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	43
teleop	56	112
endgame	49	45
foul	0	0
total	125	200

Result

Final score

125 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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