Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.2 – 53.2

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.1 ±10.4

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 26.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 28.67Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 28.78Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.2 ±12.8

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 16.6Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 18.32Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 18.28Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8137, 11398, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8137, 11398, 10367

Auto

22.4 28%

Teleop

34.2 42%

Endgame

24.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6961, 3490, 10599

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6961, 3490, 10599

Auto

13.1 28%

Teleop

20.8 44%

Endgame

13.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.2pts

Blue projected score53.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 34–103
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 106.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.1Season APEX140.2

22.4Auto13.1

34.2Teleop20.8

24.2Endgame13.5

148Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	25
teleop	34	16
endgame	4	16
foul	0	0
total	64	57

Result

Final score

64 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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