Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.85 – 144.31

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.9 ±9.8

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 28.69Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 34.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 29.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.5 ±9.8

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 8.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 89Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 46.49Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1102, 343, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1102, 343, 342

Auto

17.6 19%

Teleop

55.3 61%

Endgame

18.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7085, 8575, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7085, 8575, 1758

Auto

21.7 17%

Teleop

63.4 48%

Endgame

46.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.9pts

Blue projected score144.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.5
Score range: 75–162
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.9Season APEX273.5

17.6Auto21.7

55.3Teleop63.4

18.1Endgame46.1

134Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	47
teleop	78	89
endgame	59	43
foul	0	0
total	161	179

Result

Final score

161 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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