Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.53 – 115.48

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±11.2

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 9.55Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 70.38Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 20.6Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±11.2

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 21.67Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 27.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 66.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 1287, 6961

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4533, 1287, 6961

Auto

24.6 23%

Teleop

68.4 63%

Endgame

15.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10599, 11167, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10599, 11167, 1319

Auto

20.9 23%

Teleop

46.4 52%

Endgame

22.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.5pts

Blue projected score115.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15
Score range: 83–133
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 98.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.3Season APEX213.5

24.6Auto20.9

68.4Teleop46.4

15.3Endgame22.5

157Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	27
teleop	81	47
endgame	30	31
foul	0	5
total	156	110

Result

Final score

156 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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