Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.76 – 105.2

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117.9 ±10.4

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 13.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 39.91Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 21.1Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.2 ±9.8

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 16.95Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 92.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX -4.13Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10231, 2815, 11398

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10231, 2815, 11398

Auto

24.4 31%

Teleop

26.7 34%

Endgame

27.8 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11254, 8575, 3490

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11254, 8575, 3490

Auto

16.6 15%

Teleop

52.1 47%

Endgame

41.5 38%

Strengths

· 8575 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.8pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.4
Score range: 57–123
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 98.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117.9Season APEX263.2

24.4Auto16.6

26.7Teleop52.1

27.8Endgame41.5

155Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	46	63
endgame	32	8
foul	0	0
total	102	84

Result

Final score

102 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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