Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.86 – 69.51

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.3 ±10.4

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 24.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 38.59Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 38.86Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.2 ±10.4

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 43.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 16.63Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 9.69Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 1102, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4533, 1102, 10591

Auto

21.8 22%

Teleop

48.9 50%

Endgame

27.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1758, 11424, 9315

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1758, 11424, 9315

Auto

16.8 27%

Teleop

23.1 37%

Endgame

22.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.9pts

Blue projected score69.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.3
Score range: 52–120
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 97.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.3Season APEX157.2

21.8Auto16.8

48.9Teleop23.1

27.2Endgame22

114Consistency227

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	34	62
endgame	17	36
foul	5	15
total	73	129

Result

Final score

73 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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