Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.89 – 45.94

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.9 ±10.4

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 14.36Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 19.71Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 63.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119 ±12.8

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 7.86Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 18.33Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 19.75Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7085, 11254, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7085, 11254, 1319

Auto

29.2 36%

Teleop

33.8 41%

Endgame

18.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11475, 6167, 6961

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11475, 6167, 6961

Auto

17.8 36%

Teleop

18.6 37%

Endgame

13.4 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.9pts

Blue projected score45.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 28–116
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 102.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.9Season APEX119

29.2Auto17.8

33.8Teleop18.6

18.5Endgame13.4

168Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	43	16
endgame	14	7
foul	0	0
total	79	43

Result

Final score

79 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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