Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.49 – 122.73

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.7 ±10.4

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 7.65Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 15.03Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX -3.19Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.1 ±9.3

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 30.61Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 64.79Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 27.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11424, 3489, 3490

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11424, 3489, 3490

Auto

3.6 11%

Teleop

5.4 16%

Endgame

25.0 74%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10367, 1287, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 1287, 343

Auto

24.6 22%

Teleop

58.6 53%

Endgame

28.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.5pts

Blue projected score122.7pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.2
Score range: 1–141
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.7Season APEX345.1

3.6Auto24.6

5.4Teleop58.6

25Endgame28

73Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	38
teleop	14	105
endgame	12	24
foul	15	5
total	60	172

Result

Final score

60 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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