Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
66.48 – 106.67
38%62%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
138 – 66
Prediction missed · off by 56.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 24.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 22.49Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91Event APEX 19.76Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.6 ±12.2
Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 18.63Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 27.82Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 60.22Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8137, 2815, 342
51
/ 100 compatProjected
66.5 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 8137, 2815, 342
Auto
18.1 28%
Teleop
23.7 36%
Endgame
23.7 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11475, 11398, 1051
66
/ 100 compatProjected
106.7 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 11475, 11398, 1051
Auto
11.0 10%
Teleop
71.6 64%
Endgame
29.3 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score66.5pts
Blue projected score106.7pts
Red win probability38%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -40.2
- Score range
- 47–126
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
177.3Season APEX126.6
18.1Auto11
23.7Teleop71.6
23.7Endgame29.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 37 | 24 |
| teleop | 80 | 28 |
| endgame | 21 | 14 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 138 | 66 |
Result
Final score
138 – 66
Prediction missed · off by 56.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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