Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.5 – 105.71

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 61.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 6Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 86.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 26.68Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.5 ±11.2

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 79.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 13.21Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 12.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3490, 6366, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3490, 6366, 7085

Auto

20.9 18%

Teleop

70.0 59%

Endgame

26.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 10599, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8575, 10599, 10591

Auto

3.9 3%

Teleop

60.5 53%

Endgame

49.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score105.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.8
Score range: 88–138
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.7Season APEX228.5

20.9Auto3.9

70Teleop60.5

26.9Endgame49.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	39
teleop	18	69
endgame	24	29
foul	0	45
total	73	182

Result

Final score

73 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 61.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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