Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.26 – 108.18

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±10.4

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 26.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.63Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 19.02Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±10.5

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 41.96Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 56.66Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10361Gatorbots

Season APEX 35Event APEX 9.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6167, 11308, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6167, 11308, 11254

Auto

20.6 24%

Teleop

36.8 43%

Endgame

29.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1758, 1287, 10361

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1758, 1287, 10361

Auto

28.5 25%

Teleop

48.5 43%

Endgame

35.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.3pts

Blue projected score108.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.9
Score range: 61–126
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX255

20.6Auto28.5

36.8Teleop48.5

29Endgame35.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	41
teleop	10	57
endgame	19	20
foul	0	15
total	68	133

Result

Final score

68 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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