Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.26 – 78.09

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.3 ±10.4

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 15.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 58.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 23.14Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.8 ±9.8

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 43.18Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 5.76Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 29.15Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8137, 1319, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8137, 1319, 281

Auto

24.0 30%

Teleop

39.2 48%

Endgame

18.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10367, 10231, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 10231, 11167

Auto

12.6 20%

Teleop

28.0 44%

Endgame

22.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.2
Score range: 60–115
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 99.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.3Season APEX212.8

24Auto12.6

39.2Teleop28

18.1Endgame22.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	24
teleop	78	52
endgame	42	15
foul	0	0
total	142	91

Result

Final score

142 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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