FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.25 – 158.31

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 117.03Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 58.8Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 31.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 36.12Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 63.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 58.83Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8575, 343, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8575, 343, 7085

Auto

37.4 18%

Teleop

106.7 52%

Endgame

60.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4864, 11254, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4864, 11254, 1319

Auto

31.8 21%

Teleop

75.0 49%

Endgame

47.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.39 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score207.3pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: 131–234
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX165.8

37.4Auto31.8

106.7Teleop75

60.3Endgame47.6

50Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	47
teleop	103	94
endgame	59	36
foul	0	0
total	204	177

Result

Final score

204 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts