FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.15 – 186.32

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±10.4

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 81.52Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 11.16Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 53.47Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 70.47Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 38.56Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 77.29Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 342, 1293, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 342, 1293, 10367

Auto

17.2 12%

Teleop

76.5 53%

Endgame

50.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 8137, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 8137, 1287

Auto

31.9 18%

Teleop

100.0 56%

Endgame

45.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score146.1pts

Blue projected score186.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.2
Score range: 119–213
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 150.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.5Season APEX260.9

17.2Auto31.9

76.5Teleop100

50.1Endgame45.2

66Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	32
teleop	76	130
endgame	10	20
foul	0	0
total	103	182

Result

Final score

103 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts