FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.11 – 205.61

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.7 ±8.7

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 114.3Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 0.94Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 169.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 116.79Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 58.36Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 30.46Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6366, 10619, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6366, 10619, 4451

Auto

52.9 19%

Teleop

177.9 63%

Endgame

49.8 18%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 343, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8575, 343, 7085

Auto

38.9 19%

Teleop

106.6 53%

Endgame

56.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score285.1pts

Blue projected score205.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.5
Score range: 179–312
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 148.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.7Season APEX339.5

52.9Auto38.9

177.9Teleop106.6

49.8Endgame56.6

49Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	30
teleop	154	108
endgame	107	75
foul	35	0
total	352	213

Result

Final score

352 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts