FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.24 – 151.63

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.3 ±10.4

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 27.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 21.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 35.17Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 33.54Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 61.85Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 56.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6167, 3489, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6167, 3489, 11424

Auto

21.8 24%

Teleop

44.4 49%

Endgame

24.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4864, 11254, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4864, 11254, 1319

Auto

28.3 19%

Teleop

71.3 48%

Endgame

50.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.71 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score84.2pts

Blue projected score151.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.4
Score range: 57–179
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 148.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.3Season APEX165.8

21.8Auto28.3

44.4Teleop71.3

24.8Endgame50

6Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	49
teleop	38	93
endgame	22	37
foul	0	15
total	88	194

Result

Final score

88 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts