FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.07 – 179.53

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.3 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -12.82Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 62.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 55.05Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±9.8

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 15.74Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 85.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 78.09Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2815, 1758, 1102

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2815, 1758, 1102

Auto

16.7 17%

Teleop

54.5 57%

Endgame

24.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11167, 4533, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11167, 4533, 281

Auto

46.3 26%

Teleop

91.8 52%

Endgame

38.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.67 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score105.1pts

Blue projected score179.5pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.5
Score range: 78–207
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.3Season APEX236.2

16.7Auto46.3

54.5Teleop91.8

24.7Endgame38.6

70Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	62
teleop	92	93
endgame	60	43
foul	0	0
total	176	198

Result

Final score

176 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts