FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.58 – 153.34

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 68.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 35.72Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 75.34Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 33.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 62.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 56.87Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3490, 8137, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 8137, 1287

Auto

30.3 18%

Teleop

92.8 55%

Endgame

45.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4864, 11254, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4864, 11254, 1319

Auto

22.9 15%

Teleop

74.5 49%

Endgame

53.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score179.6pts

Blue projected score153.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 126–207
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 147.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.9Season APEX165.8

30.3Auto22.9

92.8Teleop74.5

45.1Endgame53.5

34Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	51
teleop	131	59
endgame	48	36
foul	0	0
total	219	146

Result

Final score

219 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts