FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.83 – 106.87

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±10.4

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 82.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 13.1Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 54.66Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 138.3 ±10.4

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 33.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 29.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 42.95Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 342, 1293, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 342, 1293, 10367

Auto

18.9 12%

Teleop

77.4 51%

Endgame

55.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6167, 3489, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6167, 3489, 11424

Auto

24.0 24%

Teleop

49.7 51%

Endgame

24.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score149.8pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43
Score range: 80–177
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 149.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.5Season APEX138.3

18.9Auto24

77.4Teleop49.7

55.6Endgame24.5

56Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	72	28
endgame	35	26
foul	15	0
total	137	0

Result

Final score

137 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 59.9 pts