FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.02 – 181.83

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 113.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 54.14Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 26.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±9.8

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 16.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 86.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 78.78Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8575, 343, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8575, 343, 7085

Auto

39.9 21%

Teleop

99.0 52%

Endgame

51.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11167, 4533, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11167, 4533, 281

Auto

44.8 25%

Teleop

94.8 53%

Endgame

39.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194pts

Blue projected score181.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 155–221
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX236.2

39.9Auto44.8

99Teleop94.8

51.2Endgame39.5

62Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	53
teleop	139	80
endgame	75	34
foul	0	0
total	256	167

Result

Final score

256 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts