FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.36 – 103.78

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.7 ±8.7

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 118.24Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 5.74Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 174.38Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.3 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -12.35Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 61.07Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 55.06Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6366, 10619, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6366, 10619, 4451

Auto

48.8 17%

Teleop

194.1 66%

Endgame

50.5 17%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 1758, 1102

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2815, 1758, 1102

Auto

17.5 18%

Teleop

50.0 52%

Endgame

28.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score298.4pts

Blue projected score103.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 194.6
Score range: 77–325
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.7Season APEX165.3

48.8Auto17.5

194.1Teleop50

50.5Endgame28.7

55Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	16
teleop	111	71
endgame	44	11
foul	0	5
total	229	103

Result

Final score

229 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts