FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.11 – 211.53

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 68.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 38.44Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 75.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 118.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 59.82Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 33.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3490, 8137, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 8137, 1287

Auto

31.9 18%

Teleop

99.5 56%

Endgame

45.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 343, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8575, 343, 7085

Auto

37.4 18%

Teleop

107.9 52%

Endgame

61.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score183.1pts

Blue projected score211.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.4
Score range: 155–240
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.9Season APEX339.5

31.9Auto37.4

99.5Teleop107.9

45.3Endgame61.5

58Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	52
teleop	71	131
endgame	37	75
foul	5	0
total	151	258

Result

Final score

151 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts