FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.52 – 207.2

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±9.8

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 80.54Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 89.89Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 19.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 116.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 58.42Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 31.96Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 281, 4533, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 281, 4533, 11167

Auto

49.7 27%

Teleop

93.9 51%

Endgame

41.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 343, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8575, 343, 7085

Auto

37.8 18%

Teleop

106.6 52%

Endgame

60.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score189.5pts

Blue projected score207.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 163–234
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.2Season APEX339.5

49.7Auto37.8

93.9Teleop106.6

41.4Endgame60.3

90Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	35
teleop	101	117
endgame	49	70
foul	0	20
total	208	242

Result

Final score

208 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts