FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.36 – 187.08

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.7 ±8.7

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 119.01Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 4.47Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 173.88Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 70.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 39.67Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 77.37Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6366, 10619, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6366, 10619, 4451

Auto

53.2 18%

Teleop

174.7 61%

Endgame

60.1 21%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 8137, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 8137, 1287

Auto

31.8 18%

Teleop

105.7 59%

Endgame

41.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score297.4pts

Blue projected score187.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.3
Score range: 160–324
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 151.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.7Season APEX260.9

53.2Auto31.8

174.7Teleop105.7

60.1Endgame41.9

35Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	32
teleop	206	63
endgame	71	66
foul	15	0
total	357	161

Result

Final score

357 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts