FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.75 – 181.15

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±10.4

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 79.21Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 8.58Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 50.96Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±9.8

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 16.2Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 86.51Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 78.44Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 342, 1293, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 342, 1293, 10367

Auto

17.0 12%

Teleop

75.9 56%

Endgame

43.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11167, 4533, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11167, 4533, 281

Auto

48.5 27%

Teleop

91.8 51%

Endgame

38.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.85 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score138.8pts

Blue projected score181.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 112–208
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 151.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.5Season APEX236.2

17Auto48.5

75.9Teleop91.8

43.7Endgame38.8

68Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	58
teleop	16	105
endgame	7	57
foul	0	20
total	39	240

Result

Final score

39 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 pts