FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.13 – 57.69

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±10.4

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 4.55Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 57.19Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 38.39Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.2 ±10.4

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 25.78Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX -9.8Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 41.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1293, 1102, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1293, 1102, 11424

Auto

17.8 17%

Teleop

47.4 45%

Endgame

40.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11308, 4864, 6167

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11308, 4864, 6167

Auto

19.1 36%

Teleop

22.7 43%

Endgame

11.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score57.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.4
Score range: 30–128
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.6Season APEX151.2

17.8Auto19.1

47.4Teleop22.7

40.1Endgame11

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	24	46
endgame	12	32
foul	15	0
total	68	87

Result

Final score

68 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree