FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.72 – 121.43

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±9.8

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 6.57Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 11.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 45.51Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.6 ±9.8

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 53.43Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 61.43Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 6.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10619, 4083, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10619, 4083, 281

Auto

13.5 20%

Teleop

21.0 32%

Endgame

31.7 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6366, 1758, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6366, 1758, 10591

Auto

36.1 29%

Teleop

67.0 55%

Endgame

19.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score63.7pts

Blue projected score121.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.7
Score range: 36–149
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.5Season APEX281.6

13.5Auto36.1

21Teleop67

31.7Endgame19.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	47
teleop	52	117
endgame	19	43
foul	0	10
total	95	217

Result

Final score

95 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree