FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.03 – 134.75

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.8

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 31.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 83.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 38.62Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.1 ±10.4

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 57.43Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 34.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 42.46Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 342, 4451, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

153 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 342, 4451, 10388

Auto

26.0 17%

Teleop

83.8 54%

Endgame

44.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8137, 11254, 10231

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8137, 11254, 10231

Auto

19.1 14%

Teleop

76.1 56%

Endgame

41.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score153pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.3
Score range: 109–179
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 142.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX161.1

26Auto19.1

83.8Teleop76.1

44.9Endgame41.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	16
teleop	201	59
endgame	78	45
foul	15	10
total	329	130

Result

Final score

329 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 90.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree