FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.32 – 69.26

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±9.8

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 81.47Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 46.46Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 116.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.6 ±10.4

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 62.59Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 23.34Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -16.67Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 281, 11424, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 281, 11424, 8575

Auto

48.3 20%

Teleop

130.0 54%

Endgame

61.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 11398, 2815

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 11398, 2815

Auto

15.5 22%

Teleop

35.3 50%

Endgame

20.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score244.3pts

Blue projected score69.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.1
Score range: 42–271
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 147.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.1Season APEX123.6

48.3Auto15.5

130Teleop35.3

61.7Endgame20.5

20Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	20
teleop	107	44
endgame	43	57
foul	0	0
total	195	121

Result

Final score

195 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree