FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.83 – 226.02

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

252 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284 ±9.8

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 111.69Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 11.38Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 47.76Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.3 ±9.3

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 172.17Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 51.12Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 2.73Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6366, 9315, 1102

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6366, 9315, 1102

Auto

35.1 22%

Teleop

104.0 64%

Endgame

24.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4451, 10367, 10619

/ 100 compat

Projected

226 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4451, 10367, 10619

Auto

36.0 16%

Teleop

141.0 63%

Endgame

47.7 21%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score170.8pts

Blue projected score226pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.2
Score range: 145–252
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 145.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284Season APEX373.3

35.1Auto36

104Teleop141

24.1Endgame47.7

28Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	33
teleop	165	171
endgame	55	52
foul	0	0
total	252	256

Result

Final score

252 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree