FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.37 – 128.26

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.9 ±9.8

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 53.11Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 14.75Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 32.51Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.2 ±10.4

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 35.86Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 31.34Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 61.06Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 343, 10388, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 343, 10388, 4864

Auto

12.6 13%

Teleop

46.8 48%

Endgame

37.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8137, 3489, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8137, 3489, 1758

Auto

27.3 22%

Teleop

64.7 52%

Endgame

32.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score100.4pts

Blue projected score128.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.9
Score range: 74–154
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.9Season APEX161.2

12.6Auto27.3

46.8Teleop64.7

37.8Endgame32

43Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	29
teleop	56	69
endgame	43	32
foul	0	0
total	112	130

Result

Final score

112 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree