FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.47 – 105.03

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.5 ±9.8

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 34.36Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 13.48Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 74.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123 ±10.4

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 21.83Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 15.76Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 67.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7085, 11308, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7085, 11308, 1287

Auto

36.3 31%

Teleop

61.5 53%

Endgame

18.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3489, 9315, 3490

/ 100 compat

Projected

105 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3489, 9315, 3490

Auto

19.8 17%

Teleop

59.7 52%

Endgame

34.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score122.5pts

Blue projected score105pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 77–150
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.5Season APEX123

36.3Auto19.8

61.5Teleop59.7

18.9Endgame34.4

48Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	16
teleop	62	46
endgame	19	19
foul	15	0
total	140	81

Result

Final score

140 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree