FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.8 – 110.23

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.7 ±9.8

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 18.18Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 83.78Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 34.84Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.5 ±10.4

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 26.67Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 19Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 64.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11167, 342, 10231

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11167, 342, 10231

Auto

18.5 14%

Teleop

66.9 49%

Endgame

50.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7085, 4083, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7085, 4083, 11254

Auto

27.2 26%

Teleop

36.5 34%

Endgame

42.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136.8pts

Blue projected score110.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.6
Score range: 84–163
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.7Season APEX141.5

18.5Auto27.2

66.9Teleop36.5

50.8Endgame42.1

59Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	34
teleop	57	56
endgame	44	19
foul	0	5
total	123	114

Result

Final score

123 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree