FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.1 – 132.7

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.6 ±10.4

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 14.06Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 33.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 88.12Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.9 ±9.8

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 13.76Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 69.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 49.77Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1293, 6167, 4533

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1293, 6167, 4533

Auto

34.0 27%

Teleop

55.1 44%

Endgame

35.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10591, 1287, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10591, 1287, 1319

Auto

26.6 22%

Teleop

64.2 53%

Endgame

29.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136.1pts

Blue projected score132.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.4
Score range: 107–162
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.6Season APEX244.9

34Auto26.6

55.1Teleop64.2

35.1Endgame29.2

72Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	47
teleop	68	104
endgame	31	53
foul	0	5
total	137	209

Result

Final score

137 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree