FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.43 – 106.71

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.5 ±9.3

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 172.69Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 118.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 17.78Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±9.3

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 48.63Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 54.3Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 3.78Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 8575, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4451, 8575, 11308

Auto

50.6 16%

Teleop

179.7 59%

Endgame

76.8 25%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11424, 343, 10619

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11424, 343, 10619

Auto

22.3 22%

Teleop

50.6 51%

Endgame

26.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.4pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 202.7
Score range: 81–335
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.5Season APEX280

50.6Auto22.3

179.7Teleop50.6

76.8Endgame26.5

91Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	18
teleop	197	45
endgame	44	33
foul	0	0
total	307	96

Result

Final score

307 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree