FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.99 – 165.24

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

229 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.7 ±9.8

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 105.83Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 27.14Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 27.02Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.3 ±10.4

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 38.13Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 53.62Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 73.49Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6366, 4864, 3489

/ 100 compat

Projected

160 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6366, 4864, 3489

Auto

26.1 16%

Teleop

103.4 64%

Endgame

31.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1102, 3490, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1102, 3490, 281

Auto

22.9 14%

Teleop

100.2 60%

Endgame

42.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score160pts

Blue projected score165.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.2
Score range: 134–191
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.7Season APEX182.3

26.1Auto22.9

103.4Teleop100.2

31.9Endgame42.6

55Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	33
teleop	130	151
endgame	38	85
foul	5	10
total	229	279

Result

Final score

229 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree