FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.78 – 95.22

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.9 ±9.8

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 13.42Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 9.77Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 64.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.9 ±10.4

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 17.59Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 50.51Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 27.12Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4083, 1293, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4083, 1293, 1287

Auto

21.6 29%

Teleop

25.4 34%

Endgame

27.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10388, 1319, 11398

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10388, 1319, 11398

Auto

23.3 24%

Teleop

55.0 56%

Endgame

20.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score95.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 62–121
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.9Season APEX133.9

21.6Auto23.3

25.4Teleop55

27.8Endgame20.3

48Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	18
teleop	77	42
endgame	46	33
foul	0	0
total	161	93

Result

Final score

161 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree