FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.21 – 127.28

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±10.4

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 83.15Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -20.48Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 54.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.2 ±10.4

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 15.67Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 22.34Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 89.27Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 2815, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4533, 2815, 1758

Auto

35.2 33%

Teleop

48.5 46%

Endgame

22.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9315, 11308, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9315, 11308, 342

Auto

23.9 19%

Teleop

56.8 45%

Endgame

46.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score117.2pts

Blue projected score127.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.1
Score range: 91–153
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166Season APEX178.2

35.2Auto23.9

48.5Teleop56.8

22.2Endgame46.2

90Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	21
teleop	110	58
endgame	40	27
foul	0	0
total	193	106

Result

Final score

193 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree